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Resilience 

Understanding the economic costs and benefits of urban resilience in UCCRTF cities in Bangladesh

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August 2020

ADB’s Urban Climate Change Resilience Trust Fund (UCCRTF) has begun working on a number of case studies looking at the economic benefits of investment in urban resilience. These studies examine the historical socio-economic vulnerability and exposure of selected cities to a range of climate impacts and stresses such as flooding and cyclone damage. The purpose of the studies is to assess the potential economic benefits of investing in resilient infrastructure and better city-level planning and capacity. It is hoped that a more comprehensive appreciation of the economic value of avoided damages will bolster the case for climate-resilient investment. 

The first case study examines the secondary cities of Bagerhat and Patuakhali in Bangladesh, both of which are located in the low-lying coastal flood plain. These cities have been regularly impacted by large-scale cyclone events, such as Cyclone Sidr in 2007, which affected more than 200,000 people within the city boundaries. The cyclone destroyed roads, buildings, schools, colleges and other infrastructure, and killed more than 4,000 people across the coastal region. [1]

In support of the project preparation work for ADB investments in Bangladesh, UCCRTF financed the formulation of climate resilient integrated urban plans for seven towns, including Bagerhat and Patuakhali. Among the coastal towns, the two were determined to be the most vulnerable to impacts of climate change so the trust fund allocated an additional $6 million to the ADB Coastal Towns Environmental Infrastructure Project (CTEIP) (44212-013) to finance the construction of cyclone shelters, emergency access roads and drains, as well as the preparation of integrated drainage plans (IDP) and fecal sludge management (FSM) and solid waste management (SWM) plans in Bagerhat and Patuakhali.

In May 2020, these investments were put to the test when Cyclone Amphan, the most serious Category IV cyclone since Sidr, hit the Delta. In Bangladesh, the storm impacted more than 2.6 million people. More than 200,000 houses were fully or partially damaged, along with more than 44% of educational facilities. Bagerhat and Patuakhali were among the five worst impacted districts of Bangladesh. [2]

While full assessment work on damage and recovery costs is currently ongoing, what is becoming clear is that many of the most significant impacts of the cyclone in the two cities were able to be reduced, in part thanks to investments in resilient infrastructure and planning by ADB and UCCRTF.

Better early warning systems, comprehensive evacuation plans, and more robust cyclone shelters led to significantly lower levels of deaths and injury, with a total of 26 deaths across the whole of Bangladesh, of which only two were from Bagerhat and Patuakhali districts. This was of a magnitude lower than in previous similar scale events. [3]

Furthermore, an initial review indicates that UCCRTF infrastructure investments remained operational when the cyclone hit.[4] More robust and resilient roads supported the movement of people across the municipal region as part of the evacuation. Investments in higher capacity drainage systems also helped the cities cope better with intense rainfall and coastal or river flooding.

The UCCRTF team is currently engaging with the local authorities in both cities to obtain more detailed insights into the damage incurred as well as the potential avoided damage costs resulting from recent investments in improved resilience. As a result of COVID-19, the economics team have been undertaking remote videoconferences with the mayors and senior engineers in the cities, supported by the project’s Country Resilience Officers on the ground.

The case study, due later this year, will provide more detailed evidence on the socio-economic benefits of investing in resilience in terms of avoided costs and other livelihood and productivity benefits. Wider assessments of the economics of resilience suggest that the benefits of such investments in vulnerable urban environments are at least double the cost, and that improvements in city-level planning and preparedness have the potential to drastically reduce the human cost of climate disasters.

This will be the first in a series of economics of resilience case studies, with others tentatively planned for Hue in Viet Nam and La Trinidad in the Philippines over the coming months. ​

AUTHOR

Matthew Savage
Matthew is a leading international expert on climate change economics policy and finance. He is currently working with the UCCRTF on measuring economic loss of shocks and stresses in cities. A visiting lecturer at the Universities of Oxford and Copenhagen, Matthew has worked in more than 30 countries across 5 continents, including roles at the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Finance Corporation.

[1] ReiliefWeb (2007) Cyclone Sidr hit Bangladesh https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/cyclone-sidr-hit-bangladesh

[2] Needs Assessment Working Group (NAWG) Bangladesh (2020) Cyclone AMPHAN Joint Needs Assessment (JNA) https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/cyclone_amphan_joint_needs_assessment_final_draft_31052020.pdf

[3] ibid

[4] UCCRTF SP3 Amphan Impact report (Internal)

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